Over the past 35 years, the international scientific community has warned about the causes and trajectory of climate threats that are now certain to unfold over the course of this century.
But recent weather patterns have become more extreme than had been expected from past evidence, including by the global assessment published by the United Nations in 2023.
The years 2022, 2023, and now 2024 are hotter than in any previous period on record. In fact, the planet now has its highest surface temperature in 2000 years.
This raises the credible possibility that the next 5 years will see the onset of more widespread, frequent and abrupt climate impacts that will be progressively become catastrophic. Heat extremes and the sea level rise from the melting polar ice caps will dominate the risks, many of which are irreversible.
The threat is being driven by the continued burning of coal, gas and oil. Their guaranteed persistence as sources of energy effectively means the deterioration of the climate is now unavoidable.
A client briefing is available that examines the factors underpinning this perspective and its implications.